Forecasting Anemia Prevalence Among Women Of Reproductive Age In Iraq Using ARIMA

Abstract

ANEMIA is one of the diseases that threaten global health indicators and mainly affects children and women of reproductive age (15-45) years. It also affects women of postpartum hemorrhage and during menstruation. In (this) research, women of childbearing age highlighted as an important period that affects the health of the fetus during pregnancy and has serious consequences for the child after birth. Data representing the number of women suffering from ANEMIA of reproductive age in Iraq was taken for the period (2000-2019). A time series model was used to analyze the study data, which is called the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Model (ARIMA), and the best model was chosen to predict the number of infections for the coming periods. The ARIMA model is distinguished by its flexibility and accuracy in the short-term forecasting process, and it has been widely used in many social, economic, health and other applications. Iraq witnessed a significant decrease in ANEMIA rates among women of childbearing age, as it reached (28.6) in 2019, after it was (39.5) in 2000. However, this indicator is still high compared to developed countries, so the forecasting process helps in taking Health measures necessary to reduce this threat. The ARIMA model (1,2,2) was chosen according to the AIC and HQC standards, and then the validity of the proposed model was examined when time changes. Through the MAPE test. After confirming the validity of the model, its parameters were estimated for use in predicting the number of ANEMIA cases in women of reproductive age for the period (2020-2028). The expected results indicate that there will be an increase in the number of infections during the coming period.